Director of Public Opinion Research Emily Swanson explains how AP VoteCast works:
What is AP VoteCast?
AP VoteCast is designed to explain the how and why of each election. Conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, its methodology is designed to capture the way Americans vote today, including the large percentage of American voters who cast their ballots before Election Day.
The survey starts with a random sample of voters from state voter files who are contacted through the mail, using postcards or in some cases letters, and inviting people to take the survey online or over the phone. This sample is supplemented with additional interviews from large, opt-in online panels. These samples are separately weighted and calibrated to ensure the survey represents each state’s population of registered voters. The survey includes interviews with those who do vote and those who don’t.
The survey beings about a week before Election Day and concludes as polls close in each state. Interviews are offered in both English and Spanish. All told, the survey will interview more than 100,000 voters across all 50 states in 2024, with a special emphasis on the battleground states.
How is it different from an exit poll?
AP VoteCast is not an exit poll, which traditionally relies primarily on interviews conducted in person on Election Day. Instead, it’s designed to reach people no matter when and how they cast their ballots: through the mail, in person before Election Day or in person on Election Day.
AP VoteCast is used in much the same way that exit polls have traditionally been used: to explain the outcome of the election. That includes telling us who voted and how, as well as how voters saw the issues and which ones were important to them.
For example, AP VoteCast will help explain whether or not former President Donald Trump has made inroads among Black and Hispanic men, and whether women have rallied around Kamala Harris’ bid to be the first female president. It will tell us which voters prioritized the economy, immigration, abortion and other issues. And it will help us explain who stayed home and why.
Does AP use VoteCast to call races?
AP VoteCast is one of the tools we use to determine election winners, including in races able to be called as soon as polls have closed in a state. When AP calls a winner at poll close, AP VoteCast is the final piece of the puzzle, confirming the outcome in non-competitive states where the state’s vote history provides a strong indication of which way the race will swing.
AP VoteCast is never the final word on who has won a competitive race. AP can only declare winners in those races once enough voters are counted and sufficient information is available about how many ballots remain to determine that the trailing candidate can’t catch up. Only then will AP declare a winner – when we are absolutely certain the trailing candidate no longer has a path to victory.
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